More than 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in property exists in the affected area, and more than 165 billion US dollars in damage would likely result if the 1868 earthquake were to reoccur. The black box (bottom left inset) enlarges the region of the junction. [19] (Earthquake insurance is not only quite expensive, it tends to be burdened with large deductibles – at least 15 percent). However, the University has undertaken an extensive retrofitting project over the past decade to systematically retrofit all academic buildings on Campus to withstand a significant earthquake. Affected areas are likely to be without electrical power for an extensive period. More extensive disruption and greater hazard could be caused by the failure of elevated structures, both those over which the highway passes and overcrossings of the freeway, of which there are two nearby. Some of the cities in the eastern bay shore and south bay region near this fault include Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, Oakland, Piedmont, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, Newark, Milpitas, Niles, and portions of San Jose. The Bay Area fault system and the spot (red star) where the Hayward Fault branches off from the Calaveras Fault. The Calaveras fault system stretches 131 km, from south of Hollister, northward, into the Danville-Walnut Creek area (Taylor, 1992). The Hayward Fault has ruptured about every 140 years for its previous five large earthquakes. In October 2016, scientists found definitive evidence that the Rodgers Creek Fault and the Hayward Fault are linked together under San Pablo Bay. an offshoot of the San Andreas Fault, near Hollister, south of the Bay Area. Water could be cut off to 2.4 million people living in California's San Francisco Bay Area. The Rodgers Creek-Hayward-Calaveras-Northern Calaveras fault system in California dominates the hazard posed by active faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. October 21, 2008, marks the 140th Anniversary of the 1868 approximate Magnitude 7 earthquake. In addition to direct damage the effects on commerce due to damaged infrastructure would also be substantial. A major route for commuters traveling from Southern Alameda County, the San Joaquin Valley and the East Bay hills to downtown Oakland and San Francisco, Interstate 580 crosses the fault twice, and runs very close to the fault between the intersections with State Route 13 (the Warren Freeway) and Interstate 238. [18] Earlier (January 2008) assessments suggest that the Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults may be more likely to fail in the next few decades than previously thought.[2]. In addition to extensive modifications to over crossings and elevated structures, largely to prevent dismantling due to shaking or destruction by soil failure, several other unique system feature require special treatment. During the reconstruction, the Cal Bears have played at AT&T Park in San Francisco for one season. The Hayward Fault is thought capable of generating a magnitude 7.5 quake. Numerous chemical, radiological, and biohazardous materials are present (in relatively small quantities) on campus and on the associated Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in the hills above the university. Each oval outer section carries two inner train tubes of circular cross section and a central rectangular access and rescue tunnel, with the void between elements filled with concrete. In 1868, the population living along the Hayward Fault was just 24,000. Dismantling of high pressure and temperature process units and the consequent fire danger to personnel and equipment could produce substantial economic consequences for the western states. Of all the earthquake prone regions of the world, the San Francisco Bay Area is among the most prepared structurally for the eventuality of a major quake while remaining grossly unprepared in both civil response planning and in the retrofitting of older buildings.[30]. The Hetch Hetchy Aqueduct, which supplies 270 to 315 million gallons of water per day to the City of San Francisco and other Bay Area communities, directly crosses the Hayward Fault in Fremont. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) in concert with other government agencies has sponsored the analysis of local conditions and the preparation of maps indicative of the destructive potential of these earthquakes. Calaveras Fault hit with nearly 40 aftershocks after 5.6 quake BAY AREA REASSESSING RISK: Likelihood of a larger quake increased, but energy seems to be directed away from dangerous Hayward It runs through densely populated areas, including Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, and San Jose. Geologic map of the Calaveras Fault. The projected worst-case motion at this joint has been determined to be beyond that for which the joint is presently capable, which could cause severe structural problems and mud and water entry into the tube and adjacent subway systems. The Hayward Fault splinters from the Calaveras Fault, which itself is an offshoot of the San Andreas Fault, near Hollister, south of the Bay Area.All three faults are right-lateral strike-slip faults. The Hayward Fault in the East Bay is considered the most dangerous earthquake fault in America. Extensive upgrades over a recent eighteen-month interval have addressed the life safety issues,[28] including replacement of the football players' facilities, and an extensive seismic retrofit of those sections not subject to fault shearing. The white lines indicate faults recognized by the USGS. The Hayward fault zone is truncated to the south by the Calaveras fault, which trends about north 10 west, and so forms an oblique east and south boundary. The progressively more severe reports and estimates of event probability and consequences have awakened a broad interest in training people for emergency response. The researchers found that the underground portion of the Hayward Fault meets the Calaveras Fault 10 kilometers farther north than where the … A section of sidewalk in Hayward that showed the movement of the Hayward Fault was 'fixed' by the city, much to the dismay of geologists. Much of the Hayward fault experiences 3-6 mm/yr of creep at the surface, approximately half of its estimated long-term slip rate (~9mm/yr). Although it has been known for some time that the Calaveras and Hayward faults merge in the South Bay region, recent geological studies suggest that the Calaveras and Hayward faults may be even more closely connected horizontally deep beneath the surface, angling toward each other with depth until they become a single fault. Modified train scheduling to prevent multiple train exposure at faults has been determined by BART engineers to be impractical due to variations in train passage, but automated event-related realtime train operational response is considered practical (see below). A severe earthquake is more likely to disable the offshore causeway portions of Interstate Highway 80 (the Eastshore Freeway), since it is built on fill placed in the 1930s atop mudflats whose upper layers were deposited in the 19th century as a result of extensive hydraulic gold mining in the distant Sierra Nevada mountain foothills. The designed slip margin has been reduced by half due to unforeseen settlement of the tube structure. Newly discovered link between Calaveras, Hayward faults means potentially larger quakes. But new seismic research indicates that the Hayward and its neighboring fault, the Calaveras, might be connected underground to make them, in effect, a single and even more dangerous fault. The Bay Area fault system and the spot (red star) where the Hayward Fault branches off from the Calaveras Fault. It is expected that these segments may fail singly or in adjacent pairs, creating earthquakes of varying magnitude. (See the Virtual tour – Google Earth Flyover below.). United States Geological Survey (USGS) scientists state that a major earthquake occurring on the zone is "increasingly likely". To the south of the Hayward lies the Calaveras Fault. Some geologists have suggested that the Southern Calaveras should be renamed as the Southern Hayward. The white lines indicate faults … Engineers and much of the public had long recognized that a strong earthquake centered close to the bridge on either the Hayward or San Andreas faults could cause a complete collapse of the eastern span. 2.5 Ma and was largely completed by ca. Neighboring counties. Recent estimates of the damage potential of a major Hayward Fault earthquake by a professional risk management firm indicate the potential for huge economic losses, of which only a small percentage is insured against earth movement. We examine how physics-based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras faults. At the same time, the North American Plate is moving southwestward relative to the Earth's core, but southeastward relative to the Pacific Plate, due to the latter's much faster northwestward motion. The faults shown here are represented by simple lines which do not convey how complicated they can be. A 2002 report by the Bay Area Economic Forum suggests that a breakdown in the aqueduct due to an earthquake could cut off Hetch Hetchy water to the Bay Area for 60 days. We examine how physics-based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras faults. Given that this fault system runs through a densely populated area, a large earthquake in this region is likely to affect millions of people. Graymer et al. [8] It is also considered possible that a major seismic event on either fault may involve movement on the other, either concurrently or within an interval of up to several months. The Rodgers Creek-Hayward-Calaveras-Northern Calaveras fault system in California dominates the hazard posed by active faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. Hayward fault is separated 3.5 km from the junction of the northern and southern segments of the Calaveras fault at Calaveras reservoir. Subsequent seismic analysis indicated the possibility that the overfill could fail due to agitation, allowing the buoyant tube to float upward, misaligning the tracks and possibly overstressing the bolted connections. The Hayward Fault is the most likely Bay Area fault to rupture in a major earthquake in the next 30 years. Figure: a) Characteristically Repeating Earthquakes (CREs) color-coded by depth and with radius proportional to their 1992-2011 cumulative slip overlaying the mean 1992-2011 InSAR ground velocity. They do warn that all residents of the region should be prepared for a large event and its subsequent effects (e. g., lack of water, firefighting, first aid, electricity, motor and heating fuels, etc.) Learn how to create your own. The Rodgers Creek-Hayward-Calaveras-Northern Calaveras fault system in California dominates the hazard posed by active faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. The fault continues north under the eastern margin of Lake Temescal and its dam, which is unlikely to fail since it has been completely reinforced by the extensive earth fill supporting the subsequently improved Highway 24. Relocated events on the Hayward and Calaveras faults in particular, have been especially revealing and suggest that at seismogenic depth the Hayward fault is the major northward extension of the Central Calaveras fault (Manaker, Michaels, and Burgmann, 2003), rather than the Northern Calaveras fault. Calaveras Fault. The complete fault zone, including the Rodgers Creek fault, is divided by seismologists into three segments – Rodgers Creek, Northern Hayward, and Southern Hayward. The Hayward Fault splinters from the Calaveras Fault, which itself is an offshoot of the San Andreas Fault, near Hollister, south of the Bay Area.All three faults are right-lateral strike-slip faults. The last large event was the 1984 Morgan Hill event and the last moderate earthquake was the 2007 Alum Rock event. If true, this would have significant implications for the potential maximum strength of earthquakes on the Hayward, since this strength is determined by the maximum length of the fault ru… Given that this fault system runs through a densely populated area, a large earthquake in this region is likely to affect millions of people. [24], East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) supplies water to 800,000 East Bay customers who live west of the Berkeley Hills. The most dangerous fault in the Bay Area is, as of now, due to fail at any time. The Hayward Fault is one of the secondary faults in this diffuse zone, along with the Calaveras Fault to the east and the San Gregorio Fault, west of the San Andreas. It was long believed that there was no connection between the Hayward Fault and the Calaveras, but geological studies[10] (particularly the examination of very small and deep earthquakes) suggest that the two may be connected. This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. Many seismologists believe that the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which occurred on the San Andreas fault, reduced the stress on many faults in the Bay Area including the Hayward fault, creating an "earthquake shadow": a quiescent period following a major earthquake. (2003, 2015) proposed that the reorganization of the regional Calaveras fault–Hayward fault junction from a releasing to a restraining geometry began ca. The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. The extended trace of the Hayward Fault, also illuminated by shallow repeating micro-earthquakes, documents a surface connection with the Calaveras Fault. April 10, 2015. Given that the Hayward and Calaveras faults are connected, the energy released in a simultaneous rupture could be 2.5 times greater, or a magnitude 7.3 quake. The complete fault zone, including the Rodgers Creek fault, is divided by seismologists into three segments – Rodgers Creek, Northern Hayward, and Southern Hayward. [17] When the next major earthquake occurs on the fault, damage will be catastrophic. Its last major rupture occurred in 1868, during California's frontier days, and was the original "Great San Francisco Earthquake" until 1906.. Our findings suggest that large Rodgers Creek-Hayward-Calaveras-Northern Calaveras (RC-H-C-NC) fault-system earthquakes may result from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, but is then stopped by creeping parts, leading to high-magnitude-6 earthquakes; or, from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, then cascades through some of the … As part of this project, that tunnel – the Claremont Tunnel – was seismically retrofitted. The red line is the newly discovered surface trace connecting the southern end of the Hayward Fault to the Calaveras Fault, once thought to be an independent system. The north and south ends are formed of new bridging sections that rest upon floating mats (foundations that do not penetrate the surface, rather sitting upon plastic sheets over level graded gravel and sand) where they pass over and near the fault, with appropriate sliding connections between the sections for the safety of spectators and the ability to absorb the relative rotation between the east and west fixed sections and the new north and south mobile sections. This region is also covered with dense low-rise urban development, most of which was built soon after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and long before even moderately earthquake resistant construction practices had been developed in the late 1920s. Since the fault runs through heavily populated areas, more than 5 million would be affected directly. If the 1868 rupture on the southern Hayward fault extended southward along the Mission Seismic trend, it might have included Zone VI or perhaps triggered aftershocks on Zone VI. The San Andreas Fault and 6 other significant fault zones are present in the Bay Area: the Calaveras, Concord-Green Valley, Greenville, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and San Gregorio Faults. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras faults. The Hayward Fault is parallel to the San Andreas Fault, which lies offshore and through the San Francisco Peninsula. For each site, the available data are listed. The increased length of a potential rupture involving the Hayward and central Calaveras Faults (up to ~160 km long) could generate earthquakes much larger than M7, especially given that creeping patches may participate in a rupture in the presence of dynamic weakening. [13] The following year, in 1869, the William Meek Estate became one of the first developments in the area, built on 3,000 acres (12 km²) in what became known as the Cherryland district of Eden Township. The creep is sufficient to displace roads, curbs, and sidewalks and so visibly reveal the surface trace in many locations. On the other hand, the intermediate depth repeaters are essentially continuous between the central Hayward and south Calaveras faults ~10 km farther north than the surface creep, suggesting that the Hayward fault dips to the northeast and the two faults merge farther north at depths of ~5 km. Creep damage to asphalt road surfaces will usually appear as a series of echelon cracks. In this rift valley there are a number of elevated street crossings in the Montclair District that cross the fault. The Tom Wolfe novel A Man in Full features a fictional major earthquake on the Hayward Fault as a deus ex machina method (freeing a major character from prison) and plot development point. Our new geometry of the Hayward-Calaveras Fault zone should be used as a basis for earthquake process modeling and ground motion simulations to reevaluate seismic hazard in the Bay Area. The Bay Area fault system and the spot (red star) where the Hayward Fault branches off from the Calaveras Fault. These data have been hand-edited to remove periods of bad data and, where possible, compared with manual measurements. Further north the fault passes under the lengthwise midline of the football field of California Memorial Stadium at the University of California, Berkeley. A November 9, 2004, construction accident on this pipeline system in Walnut Creek killed five people. Sponsored. However, the 1868 quake caused much damage throughout the then sparsely settled Bay Area, including the city of San Francisco. Such sensor networks and warning devices have a potential to reduce the hazards from falling objects and furnishings provided that the people notified are well trained in appropriate responses (similar to the Cold War's "duck and cover" training of schoolchildren). These data have been hand-edited to remove periods of bad data and, where possible, compared with manual measurements. Large liquid storage tanks are protected by berms that are designed to contain the contents should a tank fail under normal conditions. (This potential is not shown in the shake intensity maps shown below.). The Calaveras fault is a major offshoot of the San Andreas fault in Northern California. Local surveys of recently completed work have exposed deficient workmanship in a number of cases involving household retrofits. ", "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System", "Report: Next major earthquake on Hayward fault will be catastrophic", "Reminder: Hayward Fault due for next Big One", "$6 million settlement in 2004 pipeline blast: 3 injured workers, dead man's kin to share funds", https://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2011/PAR1101.pdf, EBMUD Water Supply Seismic Improvement Program, "Major East Bay Water Supply Line Retrofit Completed", "San Francisco Chronicle, October 9, 2002: "$28 billion Hetchy loss in big quake, Cal Football to Play 2011 Home Season at San Francisco's AT&T Park, Fremont Earthquake Exhibit – The Hayward Fault Exposed. Our new model of the Hayward-Calaveras Fault zone geometry argues for a direct connection via a dipping wedge-shaped fault plane to reconcile the occurrence of creep 10 km south of the deep Mission Peak connection. In October 2007, a magnitude 5.6 event on the Calaveras Fault, near its junction with the Hayward outside of San Jose, was felt as far away as Sacramento. In addition to depriving 85% of San Francisco residents of their drinking water, this would cut off supplies for firefighting and water-intensive industry, causing economic damage of $17.2–28.7 billion. Strike-slip faults within this system consist of a relatively simple linear segment in central California, with broad networks of sub-parallel faults to the south and north Important faults of the SAF system in the Bay Area include the San Gregorio, San Andreas, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults, along with others to the east (Concord-Green Valley and Greenville). Many modifications have been made to freeway structures to reduce life hazards during seismic events. The Hayward Fault runs from San Pablo Bay to Fremont. Earlier earthquakes have been detected by trench exposure and associated radiocarbon dating. Experience with large area urban destruction such as caused by earthquake, hurricane, and firestorms has shown that complete rebuilding can take up to a decade, owing to various factors. The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake? Foundation and soft story weaknesses are easily remediated in most cases, but this is only effective if the work is competently done, with proper attention to minor details such as nailing patterns and proper connections. The area affected by an earthquake is also dependent upon the density and uniformity of the soils surrounding the fault. The segments were sunk into a ditch dredged through bay mud and covered with rock fill, and then pumped free of water upon completion, making the resulting tube somewhat buoyant, but held in place with a rock overfill. Extensive additional interpretive material concerning the geology and seismology of the Bay Area was presented for viewing, most of which is currently accessible online. The red line is the newly discovered surface trace connecting the southern end of the Hayward Fault to the Calaveras Fault, once thought to be an independent system. The transform boundary defined by the San Andreas Fault is not perfectly straight, and the stresses between the Pacific and North American Plates are diffused over a wide region of the West, extending as far as the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. We rely on Characteristically Repeating Earthquakes (CREs) to refine our understanding of the interaction between the Calaveras and Hayward faults. BART trains travel between San Francisco and Oakland through an underwater tube structure. Below is a list of creepmeters, from North to South, located on the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras Faults. The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. The Hayward Fault shares the same relative motions of the San Andreas. The Hayward Fault is one of the secondary faults in this diffuse zone, along with the Calaveras Fault to the east and the San Gregorio Fault, west of the San Andreas. All three faults are right-lateral strike-slip faults. Potentially dangerous landslide areas are also marked, showing great areas beyond the fault that could be rendered uninhabitable by a major event. This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long,[1] situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. Geological fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, Memorial Stadium supporting columns diverging at the top due to, Potentially impacted structures and features, Electrical and communication system disruption. Most of the severe effects of that event were due to poorly responding soil conditions and design deficiencies in large structures. Due to the extensive use of point of sale scanners and registers in supermarkets this could also impact the ability of stores to sell essential items such as groceries and to preserve frozen food items, as well as terminating cable TV and most internet access. Significant adverse conditions remain which can cause disruption with possible long-term effects upon critical traffic infrastructure despite these modifications. As that portion includes the so-called Silicon Valley, the potential economic disruption due to destruction of works in progress and the dismantling of microelectronics fabrication plants could have an economic effect extending worldwide. [2], North of San Pablo Bay is the Rodgers Creek Fault, which was shown in 2016 to be linked with the Hayward Fault under San Pablo Bay to form a combined Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault that is 118 miles (190 km) long, stretching from north of Healdsburg through Santa Rosa down to Alum Rock in San Jose. It passes through parts of Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Fremont before branching into a set of surface faults that connect it to the central part of the Calaveras Fault, according to the USGS. Pacific Gas & Electric Company has numerous gas distribution lines crossing or near the Hayward Fault. [29] The modifications completed in Summer 2012 involved the cutting of the stadium into four independent sections, followed by the demolition of the two segments directly over the rubble zone. At depth, the Hayward fault merges smoothly into the southern part of the Calaveras fault, and the two may rupture together in a larger earthquake than either could produce alone. The southernmost section of the Hayward fault, however, appears to be creeping at up to 9 mm/yr, before creep abruptly ceases just south of … Prior to the adoption and implementation of a $200 million seismic improvement project all of the water for these customers went through one vulnerable tunnel that crosses the Hayward Fault near the Caldecott Tunnel. [11][12] In fact, the 1868 event became known as the "Great San Francisco earthquake" until the larger tremor in 1906. Given that this fault system runs through a densely populated area, a large earthquake in this region is likely to affect millions of people. Parallel to the Eastshore Freeway and inland only two blocks is a four-track railroad route used for general freight traffic, including that generated by the Port of Oakland (Union Pacific and BNSF railroads) and by Amtrak passenger traffic to the Pacific Northwest and eastward through Reno and Salt Lake City. 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