Women favored Kerry by 8% here out of 52% of total voters. In elections in Germany and the United Kingdom, exit polls accurately predict the outcome of national elections. In 2004, I remember lots of Bushies arguing that exit polls are never correct, and meanwhile there was a ton of statistical polling evidence saying Bush couldn't have legitimately won in 2004. Kerry had an insurmountable lead in early exits . "There are statistical indications that a systematic, nationwide shift of 5.5% of the vote may have occurred, and that we'll never get to the bottom of this, unless we gather the data we need for mathematical analysis and open, robust scientific debate. Although voter turnout was up generally in 2004, there is no indication that white evangelicals boosted their level of … 8 percent of the vote after exit polls indicated he would get 54. early exit polls. But exit polls last time were not totally accurate. On the afternoon of election day 2004, the world was abuzz with the news: exit polls indicated that John Kerry would decisively win the election and become the next president of the United States. The machinery was overhauled for the 2002 elections, but that year, massive technical failures botched exit poll reporting. This would tally with the reported heavy turnout. According to the official count—the number of votes tallied, not necessarily the number of votes cast—George W. Bush beat Kerry by a margin of three million votes. Campaign 2004: The Exit Poll Mystery: By BOB BURNETT. In 2004, Kerry won 88 percent of the black vote and Gore won 90 percent in 2000. Published: November 04, 2004 11:00 AM EST NEW YORK (AP) News organizations promised Wednesday to look into why their Election Day exit polls showed an initial surge for John Kerry, but also blamed bloggers for spreading news that gave a misleading view of the presidential race. The 2004 exit polls were conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (Edison/Mitofsky, or E/M) on contract with major national press and TV news services, operating collectively as the National Election Pool. In every case, the shift favored Bush. 3 Ohio Poll Ranges for Kerry By Precinct For further information contact info@electionscience.org. Their national poll results projected a Kerry victory by 3.0%, whereas the official count had Bush In simple pie charts. 11.15am: News networks in the US are conducting a postmortem of their election night coverage, promising to look into why exit polls initially predicted a Kerry … Instead, election results showed Bush winning the state by 2.5 percent. Kerry leads in the exit polls by a clear margin, but is still behind in the reported results. In ten of the eleven battleground states, the tallied margins departed from what the polls had predicted. Some polls showed Kerry beating Bush by as many as 3 or 4 percent in Florida but the final numbers had Bush beating Kerry by 5 percentage points. Exit Poll Los Angeles Times national exit poll. Kerry Wins Presidential Election according to the Exit Polls (November 2, 2004) Buried so deep in the methodology statement of the National Election Pool (NEP) that nobody but the serious sleuth is likely to find it, the protocol of Edison/Mitofsky, the private company that Abstract. PHOTO: Ken Zirkel (CC). In Wisconsin he’s up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one. Exit polls in Ohio, Florida and Penn. Time will tell. Advertisement Recalculating with the 3:1 voter ratio, the Kerry lead increases by 78 votes in the two precincts, a net impact of a 10.87% shift in the margin. All FINAL national exit poll demographic crosstabs are adjusted to match the recorded vote. On the afternoon of election day 2004, the world was abuzz with the news: exit polls indicated that John Kerry would decisively win the election and become the next president of the United States. By comparison, if a net 1.05% of Ohio Kerry votes switched to Bush, the election outcome was altered. The Ohio raw exit polls' disparity with the Kerry vote is 3.35%. showed Kerry winning all three key battleground states. Just because there was "bias" in the presidential exit poll, doesn't mean that there will also be bias in the Senate exit poll. That proved not to be the case. Men favored Bush by just 6% out of 48% of total voters. In addition, exit polls are notoriously unreliable, since anyone can participate in an exit poll, which can lead to a biased sample. Just checked, same pattern. The unadjusted NATIONAL exit poll numbers differ substantially from the published results – EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE BASED ON THE SAME NUMBER OF EXIT POLL RESPONDENTS. Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It’s a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. N=5,154 voters (including 3,357 California voters) interviewed -- using self-administered, confidential questionnaires -- as they exited 136 polling places across the nation on Nov. 2, 2004. Exit polls show Kerry with a wider margin. That proved not to be the case. Massive exit poll discrepancies, numerous reports of voter suppression, corrupt election administrators, unbelievable precinct results, and suspicious involvement of highly partisan technology firms all point to the election being stolen from John Kerry in Ohio 2004. The exit pollster of record for the 2004 election was the Edison/Mitofsky1 consortium. Actual is just 1% favor of Bush. RealClearPolitics - Election 2004 - General Election: Bush vs. Kerry Based on exit polls, CNN had predicted Kerry defeating Bush in Ohio by a margin of 4.2 percentage points. Ohio 2004 Exit Polls: Explaining the Discrepancy This is a summary of the first report on the Ohio exit poll controversy by the Election Science Institute. At the moment, in Gallup's tracking of the general election across the first five days of May (with a sample of more than 4,000 registered voters), Obama is losing the white vote to McCain by a 53% to 37% margin, or 16 points. In 2004, and again in 2006, the exit poll … Indeed, when the Colorado polls closed, all indications favored the Democrats. 2004 Exit Poll Results: Vote by Religion: Kerry: Bush: Nader: Protestant/Other Christian Percentage of Electorate: 54: 40%: 59%: 0% - White Protestants Hispanic Democratic affiliation declined from the 2000 election, wherein the comparable NEP exit poll data indicate a Democratic vs. Republican split of 55 percent versus 24 percent. The Zogby poll predicted Kerry would win 311 electoral votes and easily win the presidency. Friday November 19, 2004. The 2004 presidential election campaign provided a venue for a wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies. In 1992, the exits showed almost as great a pro-Clinton bias as the 2004 poll's pro-Kerry bias -- in other words, the poll showed Clinton with a lot bigger win than he ultimately had. And while Kerry did carry Pennsylvania, the chance that he would receive only 50. In the 2004 exit poll, 49 percent of Hispanic voters identified with the Democrats, 27 percent with the Republicans, and 24 percent indicated independent leanings. Fieldwork by Schlesinger Associates and Davis Research. For example: In 2004, 13660 respondents: Kerry 51%- Bush 47.6% (unadjusted) An exit poll being flawed.....hhm, let's see, a person votes, they tell you who they voted for, ususally not even 5 minutes ago and when it does not match the final results (I remember, Kerry clearly won the exit polls, that's flawed). — Everyone's Famous (@AceofSpadesHQ) November 6, 2012 The general-election exit poll in 2004 showed that Kerry lost the white vote to Bush by a 17-point, 58% to 41%, margin. In 2004, John Kerry was President from around 4:30 when the exit polls named him the winner to about 11:30 when votes declared Bush winner. So why did the exit polls differ so substantially from the official count? Which was correct? 1 percent (a 3. (The 2004 exit poll cannot be directly compared with the exit poll in 2000, which did not include a measure of evangelical identification). President Bush won November's election by 2.5% yet exit polls showed Kerry leading by 3%. Edison/Mitofsky conduct exit polls in every state plus a nationwide exit poll. This state is even closer. As I worked getting out the vote in Boulder, Colo. on Nov. 2, I received early exit poll data showing Kerry ahead in key states. We conclude that the data do not support accusations of election fraud in the Ohio A side-by-side comparison of the exit poll data on the presidential vote by demographic group this year with the numbers in 2004 and 2000. exit polls. The Election Day 2004 exit polls showed Kerry winning nearly every battleground state, in many cases by sizable margins. This is what happened in 2004, according to the exit pollsters: Kerry voters were oversampled, leading to a pro-Kerry bias in the exits. The first wave of exit polls have been circulated, and while not yet official, they show Kerry slightly ahead in Florida and Ohio. 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