Their vote is up 1.1% from 2017, however several of their twelve Assembly seats were dependent on unionist transfers, and while they have a few opportunities to gain seats from Sinn Féin, they also have several seats which are vulnerable to Alliance. Competitive (2/5): The UUP will probably hold their seat here, rather than losing to the second DUP candidate, although the TUV could make this seat even more competitive. If Alliance gains a seat it will leave Sinn Féin and the SDLP competing to hold their second seat. Sinn Féin and the SDLP put out respectful statements of respect … When that’s added to the pressure that COVID has put on the Treasury, we can be sure … A second unionist seat (second DUP or one UUP) looks increasingly unlikely. as an independent or with the TUV. One looks likely to go to a non-unionist, the SDLP has been the runner-up here in every Assembly election since 1998 and always come very close, but a second Alliance candidate probably has a better chance with 1.7 quotas in the 2019 general election. How do we elect MLAs? Sinn Féin had 2.7 quotas in 2019, and are polling slightly better than their 2019 general election result, so they are in a good position to defend their three seats. This was quite a surprise, but it is worth remembering that as with the TUV, their vote is mainly concentrated on a few constituencies. Sinn Féin had over a quota in 2017 so even with a decrease of several percent they would still be competitive. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. Possibilities (2/5): Alliance (2), TUV (1), DUP (2), SDLP (1), UUP (2), 2017 result: Sinn Féin (3), DUP (1), SDLP (1), Safe (4/5): Sinn Féin (2), DUP (1), SDLP (1). Competitive (2/5): Sinn Féin and the Green Party appear to be the favourites for the final two seats. 2019 Westminster General Election (NI) (Thursday 12 December 2019) 2019 European Election (Thursday 23 May 2019) [Awaiting results] 2019 Local Government Election (Thursday 2 May 2019) 2018 Westminster By-Election, West Tyrone, (Thursday 3 May 2018) DRAFT RESULTS 2017 Westminster General Election (NI) (Thursday 8 June … Alliance is also very likely to win a seat in North Belfast for the first time since 1982, having missed out on the final seat in 2017 by 556 votes. A well balanced vote between two Alliance candidates could lead to a narrow victory over the Greens, and the best hope for the Greens if they are not ahead from the beginning is to gain enough transfers from any independent candidates (North Down normally has a number of independent candidates, more than other constituencies). Possibilities (1/5): Alliance (2), UUP (2), DUP (3), Sinn Féin (1), TUV (1), 2017 result: DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1), SDLP (1), Independent (1), Safe (4/5): DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1), SDLP (1). Any unionist transfers will go almost entirely to Alliance over Sinn Féin, but it is SDLP transfers that will decide this seat, and it is impossible to predict who will receive more SDLP transfers here. As for the DUP, they had 2.1 quotas in 2017, and if their vote is down over 9% across Northern Ireland a third seat is almost impossible and their second seat becomes increasingly difficult to defend. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Possibilities (2/5): Alliance (1), TUV (2), DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1), 2017 result: DUP (2), UUP (1), Alliance (1), Green (1). Competitive (2/5): The second Sinn Féin seat and the DUP seat are likely to be closely contested. Competitive (1/5): This is the SDLP’s most vulnerable seat, narrowly and unexpectedly gained from the DUP in 2017 through UUP transfers. For the first time ever, the TUV might win more than one Assembly seat, and Jim Allister could have some company in Stormont. The DUP had 2.5 quotas in 2019 but that was with no TUV candidate and a surprisingly low UUP vote. While it is impossible to give an exact prediction because many final seats will be decided by extremely narrow margins and lower preference transfers could give some surprises, if I had to give a rough margin of how many seats each party is likely to have in the 2022-27 Assembly it would be: PhD student at Queen's University Belfast researching STV elections in Northern Ireland since 1973. Possibilities (1/5): Sinn Féin (3), Alliance (1), UUP (1). These are: Local council elections in England; Local and Combined Authority Mayoral elections; Mayor of London and London Assembly elections; Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England and Wales; Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliamentary election Important information about all current national NEU elections – for the Executive and for the first elected Deputy General Secretary of the NEU. skysports.com - Northern Ireland lead Ukraine 2-1 heading into Tuesday's Euro 2022 play-off second leg; Manager Kenny Shiels says qualifying for a major tournament … A third Alliance or DUP seat is also possible but neither are likely to be close enough to three quotas in order for all their candidates to stay ahead. Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, the 90 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly will be elected the following year – on May 5 2022. Possibilities (2/5): DUP (1), Sinn Féin (2), People Before Profit (1), Alliance (1), Aontú (1), SDLP (3), 2017 result: DUP (2), UUP (1), Alliance (1), SDLP (1). Competitive (2/5): Alliance and the TUV will be hoping to gain the second DUP and UUP seats. Competitive (1/5): The UUP’s most vulnerable seat is their second seat here, gained in 2017 while the DUP and Sinn Féin both lost a seat. Alliance could also challenge the DUP for a second seat, the DUP had 2.2 quotas in 2017 but with their vote down over 5% they probably won’t have two quotas on the first round, although a strong TUV vote will transfer to them. Since then Alliance has surged in the constituency, with 1.7 quotas in the 2019 local election compared to 0.2 for the SDLP. The SDLP remains at exactly the same position as in October, and slightly higher than the 2017 Assembly elections. And the Greens will probably improve their vote, despite a slightly smaller vote across Northern Ireland, because they now have three councillors and Clare Bailey is now party leader. There are no local elections taking place across Northern Ireland. The Liberal Democrats competed in 542 seats, and United for EU competed in 108 seats. ( Log Out / Possibilities (1/5): Alliance (2), SDLP (1), DUP (3), UUP (2), TUV (1), 2017 result: DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1), UUP (1), SDLP (1). Therefore, when an election took place on 5 May 2016, the next election was expected in May 2021. It is possible that the TUV could become the largest party in North Antrim in terms of first preference votes, paralleling the TUV’s impressive success in Bannside in the 2019 local election when the TUV won two seats on first preference votes alone. View all posts by jackarmstrong95. The results are in from across Northern Ireland after counts that lasted into the early hours of Friday morning. 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